Over the past quarter century, the March to final acreage for corn has been up 10 years, down 14 years and unchanged once. For soybeans, it has been up 13 years and down 12 years. Corn has never risen more than 3 million acres year-year.
This chart shows that we do not usually see big changes to the upside and it is really 50%-50% whether acres will go higher or lower.
The consensus view currently points to a historic jump between 4-6 million for U.S. corn.
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