With expanded acres and hopes of good weather, this year's safrinha corn crop was projected to push total Brazilian corn production to one of the best on record. Estimates as recent as February had total corn production in the 110 MMT range.
But planting got off to its slowest start in a decade as spotty rains delayed the soybean harvest, which adds significant risk to this year's safrinha crop. In addition, persistent dry weather sent crop quality plummeting in key growing regions. Most private forecasts have come down significantly to between 93-97 MMT, while the USDA more conservatively reduced their forecast from 109 MMT, to 102 in the May WASDE report. While some rains came last weekend, we see potential for more cuts.
Less corn from South America could mean more U.S. export opportunities. The material provided is for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any commodity contract, investment, or security or to engage in any risk management strategy or transaction.
The material provided is for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any commodity contract, investment, or security or to engage in any risk management strategy or transaction. This information is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. The information and opinions represented are those of the author, are subject to change and may be inconsistent with the views of CHS, Inc. or any of its subsidiaries. If applicable, this material should be considered a solicitation by CHS Hedging, LLC and not any other CHS entity. Trading Futures or Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.